I take no joy in doom prophecies. In fact, I consider myself a relentless optimist. However, the facts are mounting that the 2020 presidential election is going to result in some of the deepest civil unrest probably anyone has seen in their lifetime. I wouldn’t rule out another (likely more intense) bout of rioting coupled with an even more divided and non-cooperative federal government. After that is where I have no prediction for where things will go. The next couple years will likely contain even more upheaval, but also the opportunity for the transformation of our government and economy.
America Remains Divided
This is neither surprising nor unexpected. What is a little unexpected is that even in the midst of battling a foreign invader (coronavirus), we still haven’t found our common ground. Usually a “total event” (a war, pandemic, national tragedy, etc.) brings a country together. Coronavirus has pulled at our already loose seams even more. Wearing or not wearing a mask is becoming a political statement. States are deeply divided on when and what to reopen in their economy. Civic cooperation (as seen in a number of other countries) would have made for three months of lockdown, but many more months of a much better controlled spread. That has proven impossible here in the US.
Perhaps more importantly, America has yet to embrace a unifying figure. In order for substantive change and healing to happen, there has to be someone (or perhaps something) that brings Americans together. I was hopeful and excited with the campaign of Andrew Yang. One of his major campaign slogans was “Not left. Not right. Forward”. In my estimation, he was the only candidate with a specific agenda to heal our division. But Americans didn’t seem ready for him (despite a remarkable run for the highest office as a “nobody” in politics).
A divided country (probably at a level not seen since the Civil War) is a breeding ground for growing resentment and bitterness after an election. Donald Trump is openly adversarial to his “opponents”, but even Joe Biden doesn’t seem to represent national healing and unity. Furthermore, many Americans view him as an extension of the Obama administration, which was (not intentionally) part of the polarizing force that got us to where we are. If Donald wins, expect rioting, marching, protests, and civil disobedience. If Joe Biden wins, expect the same.
Inequality, Automation, and Coronavirus
As if we didn’t already have the perfect storm brewing, we add in social and economic inequality at multi-decade highs, Coronavirus, and the looming threat of automation as a response to a contracting economy. For all intents and purposes, the killing of George Floyd was a public lynching. This awakens the latent resentment that many Americans have toward a flawed criminal justice system. Americans are already feeling the economic heat in a very potent way. For some, coronavirus has been a chance to telework, but for many Americans, they left jobs that may not ever be coming back. And just our (bad) luck, many of the Government protections are set to expire this summer, and if a second wave of the virus hits in the fall, it could spell financial ruin for millions of Americans.
A long term effect of the coronavirus will be a turn toward increasing automation, creating major disruption in some of America’s largest industries. Food service for example is already shooting toward being contactless, making less need for waiters, waitresses, and hostesses. Grocery and convenience stores are already looking at ways to expand self-checkout. Walmart is going to expand cashier-less stores. What happens to the hundreds of thousands (likely millions) of Americans that will be displaced as a result? Your guess is as good as mine. On the campaign trail Andrew Yang spoke of the major disruption that driverless cars and trucks can have on our economy. Imagine this repeated over multiple industries, accelerated by the coronavirus.
I apologize that the tone of this post is mostly depressing. But if we fail to look at our coming difficulties with a truthful eye, we end up making ourselves less able to change anything, or at least take shelter for the coming storm.
In the long run, I am hopeful that the current and coming upheaval in America will see us better, stronger, and wiser on the other side. But there is no guarantee. Napoleon Hill wrote that “every difficulty has within it the seed of an equivalent or greater benefit”. That seed needs to be germinated and tended in order for us to reap the subsequent benefits. So in whatever ways we can, let’s do the work of unifying our country and ensuring a better life for generations to come. Thanks for reading!